BP’s Outlook to 2035 – Energy Use to Rise by a Third
Renewables (including biofuels) grow rapidly at 6.6% p.a.
London, February 10, 2016: Worldwide energy consumption is expected to increase by 34% between 2014 and 2035, according to BP’s Energy Outlook. The extra energy is required because of the expected growth in the world economy as well as the rising global population.
This increase is projected in BP’s ‘base case’, which outlines the most likely path for energy demand by fuel based on assumptions about future changes in policy, technology and the economy. The Outlook also explores the uncertainties around the base case using a number of alternative cases.
In the base case, the world’s GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to more than double – around one-fifth of the doubling being due to population growth and four-fifths to improvements in productivity. China and India together account for almost half of the projected increase in global GDP, with OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) economies accounting for around a quarter.
The world’s population is projected to increase by around 1.5 billion people to reach nearly 8.8 billion people by 2035.
Virtually all of the additional energy is consumed in fast-growing emerging economies. Energy demand within the OECD barely grows. Growth in China’s energy demand slows as its economy rebalances towards a more sustainable rate.
By the final decade of the Outlook, China contributes less than 30% of global energy growth, compared with nearly 60% over the past decade.
Fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy powering the global economy, providing around 60% of the increase in energy and accounting for almost 80% of total energy supplies in 2035.
Gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel at 1.8% per annum, with its share in primary energy gradually increasing. Oil grows steadily at 0.9% p.a., although the trend decline in its share continues. The combined increase of oil and gas over the Outlook is similar to the past 20 years.
In contrast, coal suffers a sharp reversal in its fortunes. After gaining share since 2000, the growth of coal is projected to slow sharply at (0.5% p.a.), compared with almost 3% p.a. over the past 20 years, such that by 2035 the share of coal in primary energy is at an all-time low, with gas replacing it as the second-largest fuel source.
Among non-fossil fuels, renewables (including biofuels) grow rapidly at 6.6% p.a., causing their share in primary energy to rise from around 3% today to 9% by 2035.
More than half of the increase in global energy is used for power generation as the long-run trend towards global electrification continues, particularly benefiting those who currently lack adequate access to electricity in regions such as Asia and Africa. Fossil fuels are expected to provide around 60% of the increase in energy to 2035.
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